Cal Football Countdown: 62 Days, A Good What If Scenario, Part 1

As always with the Cal countdown, we’re constantly trying to think of new ideas to use for the countdown. That’s when I stumbled across a PFF stat, one that showed Tevin Paul fourth among returning edge players in the Pac-12.

That rolled into another thought, that Paul will be going into his second year at a new position, having moved from defensive line to outside linebacker. Another player had a breakout year at a new position in 2018, and Paul could be poised to emulate the example that Evan Weaver paved year ago. So we ask the question, what if...

First, what does that kind of improvement entail? Statistically, Weaver's numbers went up from 2017 to 2018 as follows:

Tackles: 55 to 159

Tackles for loss: 2 to 9.5

Sacks: 0 to 4.5

Interceptions: 0 to 2

Passes deflected: 2 to 8

Just because of the nature of the defense, Paul isn't going to have that drastic of an improvement in his tackle numbers (he had 44 in 2019, 11 TFLs and 2 sacks to go along with it), but there are a couple reasons that he could improve statistically.

1. He's in year two at what defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter calls the 'glory position.'

2. Paul missed a couple of layups that could've added to his sack total a year ago (namely one against USC, which Luc Bequette cleaned up for him)

3. He has a returning Cam Goode on the other side of him. If Goode is the same player that he looked like coming into 2018, then he could be a premiere pass rusher in the Pac-12

4. The Cal defensive backfield has another year of experience/conditioning with them, which should force QBs to hold the ball just a little bit longer in those 3rd and long situations.

5. More opportunity should be coming Paul's way from a reps perspective. Paul took 530 total reps in 2018. Alex Funches, part of whose role Paul will be taking, took 834 reps in 2018. Even if Paul splits the difference between those two numbers (687 reps), there should be more opportunity in the pass rushing game. Plus, with Paul being a trusted commodity as a pass rusher, he should be in on more than the 265 pass rush reps that he took a year ago

The second part of making the Evan Weaver-like jump is a little more difficult to define. Weaver not only took the statistical leap, he also turned heads outside of the program with his 'throwback' style of play, his candidness in interviews, and his turn as an indispensable piece of the defense. If Paul can turn heads in the same way Weaver did, then the defense will be all the better for it over the next two years.