Cal Football Countdown: 25 Days, Top 25 Chances

Day 25. We're at the three quarters mark, and the fourth...you know the rest.

But in the spirit of the number, today, I want to think about Cal's top 25 odds this season -- namely, what scenarios would have to happen (outside of you know, beat everybody) for them to reach that number?

Scenario One: The Hot Start -- Beat UC Davis, @ #12 Washington, North Texas, (@ Ole Miss)

This is a toughie, but not impossible. Jacob Eason didn't quite take off this spring the way UW would have hoped, and Haener, Cal's already seen a bit of last year (Brief note, Eason has looked reportedly better in fall camp so far). The UW skill position depth is still being rebuilt, and while it's guaranteed to be ugly regardless -- not to mention on the road -- coming out on top of another defensive siege of a game isn't out of the question.

Because Cal didn't start out with votes in the poll though, just beating Washington is likely only to move them up into the receiving votes category, unless they do so by way of boatrace. That's why I've added the last two games into this scenario as well. 3-0, you're probably creeping up on the polls; start 4-0, though, and getting ranked is guaranteed, regardless of how bad Ole Miss is projected to be. You have two tough road wins under your belt before September's even out.

Scenario Two: The Midpoint Correction -- Be 5-2 heading into Utah

In this scenario, the Bears prove that they can consistently win against some tough teams away from home, and remain competitive in all the others. They have a chance to enter Salt Lake City and prove they belong with the conference's top tier, against the South favorite. It's probably a bit more that they'd be ranked after a Utah win, (highly dependent on who they've lost to), but I like the poetry of returning to Rice-Eccles ranked, if only for the possibility of avenging that 2015 game.

Scenario Three: Year End Goal -- 8 wins at worst

Over the past few seasons, the year-end AP poll's teams with the least wins have always gone 8-5 or better, so I will assume To get to that number, the Bears will have win:

MUST: UC Davis, UNT, Oregon State (all of these)

DOABLE: UCLA, ASU, Stanford, WSU, Ole Miss (three or four of these)

TOUGHIES: Utah, Oregon, USC, UW (at least one of these)

For the record, this is also the number Trace thinks they can get to -- banking on improved play from Garbers and the skill guys, plus the supercharger effect of having Goode and Deng on the returning defense, mostly. Me? I'd feel really good if these same conditions were in an even year, when UW, Oregon, and Stanford would all be at home.