Best and Worst Case (Realistic) Scenarios

For all the adjective combinations you can throw around at this year’s Cal team, my favorite two happen to be “decidedly frisky”. There is enough talent assembled to give them a puncher’s chance in any game – a strong offensive unit will usually give you that much – but enough inexperience and lack of depth to miss a bowl, too. In fact, for that reason, the range in season expectations this year is much larger this year than usual. Just take a look in the crystal ball…

[mystical dreaming sound goes here]

Worst case scenario:

Despite their best attempts to adjust for the time zone differential, the Bears come out notably sluggish against Hawaii, trailing for most of the first half before pulling away late. There are post-game press conference promises of a return to fundamentals, of lighting a fire under the team as they head into the home opener and league play around the corner, of using the bye week to reset for normal conditions.

Those promises go unfulfilled, as the Bears look largely unimproved and unimpressive again against SDSU, but improve to 2-0…well, just barely. Next up is Charlie Strong’s Texas team, hungry to redeem last year’s flukeish 45-44 loss. The Longhorns bring their A-game, their new kicker and their traveling squad, flooding Memorial with burnt orange and nightmarish yardage totals. Shane Buechele’s three touchdowns help drop the Bears.

2-1 heading into conference play is an acceptable, albeit less than ideal mark, but the nightmares are just beginning. Against Arizona State, picked to finish 9th in the preseason Pac-12 media poll, the Bears, ranked 10th themselves, struggle wildly – the relative inexperience of the back seven is torn to shreds by Demario Richard, Jalen Harvey, and all-purpose demon Tim White, who houses a kickoff for good measure. Utah frustrates the Bear Raid again and grinds their way to a close victory, dropping the Bears to 2-3, although they do steamroll conference cellar-dweller Oregon State to even it back up the next week.

That leaves Cal seeking three more wins after the bye, but they will not get them. As the competition ramps up, the Bears’ flaws are never exactly fixed – there’s too little depth in the back seven, another so-so pass rush, a few too many turnovers from Davis Webb, and a continuing mental block that prevents them from finishing against bigger opponents. They’ll pick up one more win by upsetting preseason darling Washington at home and play close against several others, but youth undoes them at the worst times. With an already too thin margin for error, a drop here and an untimely penalty there leave Coach Dykes still 1 and everything else against the Big Four. They finish 4-8, although both Demetris Robertson and Melquise Stovall make All Pac-12 Honorable Mention. The mantle of Bear Raid Commander passes on again, and relevance remains just as far off in the distance as it ever was.

Best Case Scenario:

A sightseeing expedition through Australia binds the team closer than it ever has – the Bears come out energized and take care of business early against Hawaii, allowing ample time for their backups to get in there as well. The same happens against MWC favorite San Diego State. Both victories prove very little though, because the telling tasks are still ahead, and not against the likes of non Power 5 teams. First comes Texas and the much-heralded Shane Buchele. The Bears and Longhorns lock themselves in another shootout, but it is the blue and gold gunslinger who emerges victorious – Davis Webb caps off a late 4th quarter drive with a 28 yard strike to Melquise Stovall for the winning margin. Boos rain from the stands of Memorial Stadium, but they come from the unhappy travelers.

Perfect non-conference record in tow, they roll on into the desert of Tempe, where a rebuilding Arizona State team – new QB, four new starters up front and four more in the secondary – fights gamely but falls as well. Then comes Utah, who held fast to stop Cal’s run into the college football spotlight last season, and do so again. The experience of their secondary puts the clamps on the Bears’ talented receivers, while they do just enough to pull out a win on offense. A quick trip to Reser and a blowout leave the Bears seeing 5-1 at the season’s halfway point, same as last year.

And like last year, the difficulty of the schedule only continues to ramp up, with the Pac-12 heavyweights all ahead in the final six games. This team is a year or two too early to win consistently against that tier, but they do offer one beautiful glimpse at what lies ahead, upsetting Oregon – Dakota Prukop proves just enough of a step down for Cal to outscore the Ducks at home – and pulling the Axe out of Christian McCaffrey’s hands, too. A forced fumble by Devante Downs helps doom the Cardinals on several levels, taking away McCaffrey’s Heisman hopes, Stanford’s CFP hopes, and the most prized rivalry trophy in all of college football. Behind Webb’s general efficiency, a rapidly improving secondary, the discovery of Evan Weaver and a consistent running game, the Bears are able to finish 8-4, providing a tantalizing glimpse for where the program is headed – they are able to sign a consensus top 25 class on the back of a 9th bowl win, and a return to relevancy looks to be just ahead under new Bear Raid Commander Max Gilliam.

That’s a wild swing and a wide range of possibilities, each equally possible. But I paraphrase William Carlos Williams here when I say “so much depends upon quick growth and maturity.”