It's not a fun thought, but the truth rarely is; and someday, Jared Goff is no longer going to quarterback the California Golden Bears. Sooner or later, he'll trade his signing day hat for the one he gets from Roger Goodell, the Blue and Gold for the colors of whatever professional franchise decides to construct their future around him.

That scene still sits a year off at the earliest -- maybe two, even -- but with all the draft boards now set to 2016, the hype has started rising about exactly how high the Bear Raid Commander might actually go, or what he could contribute to the NFL.

I intend to give some extended thoughts on both in the column that follows, combining Chris B. Brown's six factor quarterback model (accuracy, arm strength/velocity, anticipation/timing, decision making, pocket presence, functional athleticism - definitions linked) with my bullet point scouting notebook format.

We may revisit this column again following the 2015 season and update it with more video/gifs (all credit to DraftBreakdown, for the plays we linked; Vines are plays I recorded on DVR), but for now, here's where we stand:

• Accuracy: It's important to recognize for this category, the types of throws a QB is asked to make. 73% on bubble screens all day means less in evaluation than 62% on hitting deep outs, seam throws, tough touch throws, and passing concepts/route combinations that are used at the pro level. Granted, Goff doesn't play in an offense that is based around these concepts, but the Bear Raid does include them from time to time, and in general, he is very accurate, no matter what the route combination. His ability to throw the fade and deep ball are the most easily noticeable highlights, but don't discount his actual ball placement on less heralded routes - like making sure that on screens, making sure that the wide receiver is catching it in motion, for example. Rarely makes a bad throw now.

• Arm Strength/Velocity: You don't have to be a quarterback coach or mechanics expert to notice Goff consistently gets the ball out quickly and cleanly. That's one of the reasons he ended up winning the job in the first place. As for strength? It's not his calling card, but his arm is plenty strong enough - this is just one example of him throwing a BOLT, without even fully stepping into it:

Mind you, it's also outstanding accuracy to get that into a catchable position.

• Anticipation/Timing: How many times have you seen Goff release the ball on an out route in single coverage, as the cornerback flails helplessly to stop a pass that's already being completed? Too many? Yeah, same here. It's routine to him now, how quickly he pulls the trigger and identifies ideal matchups, so this isn't a category to worry about either. Northwestern is the only tape available on Youtube right now, but this is an example of his timing at work - Klaw hasn't even made his break yet and the ball is out. Pretty great here, too.

• Decision Making: Largely free of bad decisions, only occasionally forces throws (a few stand out from freshman year, as does the final one against UCLA in 2014), owns a 3.11:1 TD:INT ratio, which should look even better than it does, since he's had a few picks come from freak accidents. Cool under pressure, game savvy and intelligent even in the middle of chaos (has had the presence of mind to throw away the ball on a near safety with everything breaking down on him, memorably). Has the Aaron Rodgers "draw off-sides" play down pat. Does have a knock on him for not running the full offense as of yet, as play calls come via check-with-me on the sideline; 2015 should prove very telling now that he has the full keys to the offense.

• Pocket Presence: Advanced. Goff exhibited a tremendous feel for the rush early on in his career, and has been strong at this ever since:

Knows how and when to step up in the pocket, can sidestep, spin, and step into throws as necessary:

• Functional Athleticism: When he arrived on campus, Goff weighed probably in the high 180s, low 190s, and by the time he takes the field against Grambling State, that number should be about 210, which is still a bit too slight for the NFL's preference. This can easily be corrected over the next year, though, as he enters draft preparation programs and dedicates himself full time to adding size. Ideally, he'd pick up ten more pounds…but don't mistake being thin for being frail. Goff has taken shots from the Pac-12's fiercest defenders more often than anyone would be comfortable with, and lived to tell the tale. His pocket toughness is unquestionable; his core strength and mobility workable, but not exceptional. Possesses an ideal height for the quarterback position.

• Damon Harrington has done wonders for the Marin Catholic alum. Last season, coming off his first year of Harrington's S&C, you started seeing Goff shrug off would be sack-ers and standing into throws that he would not be able to make as a freshman, and he began to run with more frequency and confidence. In limited glimpses this spring, it looks to me that this run-pass decisiveness has developed even further, and although he'll obviously never be a major zone-read threat, he is, for all intents and purposes, functionally NFL athletic.

• There is an inevitable, but lazy criticism that will be trotted out about the offense - that Goff can't make reads, that he's a system QB, that his wide receiver talent made him, so on and so forth. To these people, I say watch the tape. Watch him go through progressions , throw in tight windows, toss jaw-droppingly accurate dimes. I'm not convinced he can't succeed. I'm just not.

• For me, QB wins don't matter particularly much. A quarterback exerts a sizable -- not unlimited, but sizable -- of influence on the game, and it's important to be able gauge that influence in context, especially when there are so many other factors at play. How much of 1-11 and 5-7 can you truly blame on him? How much of it is a reflection of Goff's bad play, versus that of his linemen, his defense, or at times, his coaching? I say not a ton. Winning a ton of games doesn't mean you have the skills to be a good NFL quarterback (see: Troy Smith, Jason White, Sam Bradford, AJ McCarron…). It's loosely correlated, sure, since good NFL quarterbacks tend to win a lot of games in college, but in my mind, Goff's college record is not a huge dealbreaker. We might end up looking at this previous point differently once we get the junior year sample. In essence, though, QB wins are like pitcher wins. And no, #pitcherwinsDON'Tmatter.

• While there may be some questions as to how he handles a full "pro-style" offense, he has plenty of arm talent and brains to build off of. Glaring weaknesses in Goff's game are few, but it's fair to say ball-security is one - he fumbles alarmingly frequently -- even after factoring out the Oregon monsoon game.

• Without comparing him too much to the other 2016 signalcallers, who I know less well, obviously, I fully expect Jared to be a low-mid first day selection, whenever it is he chooses to declare. A top five projection seems too generous to me at this point, but I acknowledge that I have only a partial picture of how he stacks up against Connor Cook, Christian Hackenberg, Cody Kessler, and Cardale Jones - the other four major names in the mix right now.