Cal MBB set to face Stanford at Haas Pavilion
On Thursday at 6:00 PM PST on ESPN2 and KGO 810 AM, Cal men’s basketball will welcome the Stanford Cardinal to Haas Pavilion. Cal comes in at 7-12 overall and 2-10 in the Pac-12 while Stanford comes in at 10-7 overall and 6-5 in the Pac-12.
MBB Notebook: Rivalry Week After Desert Disappointment
Mark Fox looks ahead to Stanford
Last time out: On Saturday, Cal lost to Arizona in Tucson by a final score of 71-50.
RECAP: Cal MBB gets triturated in Tucson
On Stanford: Like Cal, Stanford has had to deal with their share of injuries as they have been without freshman forward and projected 2021 NBA lottery pick Ziaire Williams (12.5 points & 5.7 rebounds), junior guard Bryce Wills (9.3 points & 4.3 rebounds), and senior guard Daejon Davis (13.1 points & 4.1 rebounds) for an extended period of time. It is unclear when any of those three guys will be back.
In the meantime, the Cardinal have had to rely more heavily on their senior leader Oscar da Silva (18.9 points & 7.1 rebounds), junior forward Jaiden Delaire (13.3 points & 4.5 rebounds), and freshman guard Michael O’Connell (6.3 points). O’Connell is coming off a career-high 20 point performance in their 72-66 home loss against USC on Tuesday.
As a team, the Cardinal are averaging 72.2 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field, 31.3% shooting from 3-point range, and 74.7% shooting from the foul line. They average a +2.4 rebound margin, 12.4 assists, 7.1 steals, 3.6 blocks, and 15.6 turnovers per game. Their opponents average 69.1 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field, 33.2% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.6% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Cal, the first thing they have to do is control the glass. This is something that Mark Fox talked extensively about in his zoom session with the media on Wednesday. Cal hasn’t rebounded the ball as well as they would like (-1.6 rebound margin), allowing too many second chance scoring opportunities for their opponents. If Cal can do a better job of putting a body on somebody, boxing out, and hustling, they’ll have much better odds of winning this game.
Secondly, Cal needs to do all they can to defend the perimeter. Jaiden Delaire, Michael O’Connell, Spencer Jones, and Oscar da Silva all have the ability to knock it down from deep, shooting 7-16 from 3-point range against USC. If those guys get hot from 3-point land once again, it’ll be smooth sailing for the Cardinal.
Finally, Matt Bradley needs to outperform Oscar da Silva. As important as da Silva is to Stanford, Bradley is arguably even more important to Cal. He’s averaging 18.2 points per game and is the only Cal player scoring in double figures on average. If Bradley gets the better of da Silva, Cal has a shot to win. If da Silva gets the better of Bradley, I see Stanford winning with little resistance.
Prediction: Over the last several years, the Cal-Stanford men’s basketball rivalry has been pretty wild. It’s one of those deals where you really have to toss the record books out the window. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Cal won both games this week or got a split given the history between these two teams.
That all said, when it comes to predicting this game, I have to go off stats and how both teams are playing so far this season. It’s the only rational way to make a prediction. So, I am going to predict a 71-67 win for Stanford. Cal will play hard and put up a solid fight, but in the end, Stanford will find a way to get it done. They have more depth and really are in a situation where their tournament hopes are on the line.