Cal MBB heads to Corvallis to battle the Beavers

On Saturday at 3:00 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks and KGO 810 AM, Cal men’s basketball will take on the Oregon State Beavers in Corvallis. Cal comes in at 5-5 overall and 0-3 in the Pac-12 while Oregon State comes in at 4-3 overall and 0-1 in the Pac-12.

Oregon State had to postpone their game against Stanford on Thursday due to COVID-19 tracing within their own program, so there was some question about whether or not the game on Saturday would be played. Today we got confirmation that Saturday’s game will indeed go on as scheduled and that Oregon State will make up their game with Stanford on Monday at 12:00 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks.

Notebook: Cal Basketball heads to the Oregon Schools

Last time out: On New Year’s Eve, Cal gave #21 Oregon a run for their money in the first half before fading in the second half, losing by a final score of 82-69. Matt Bradley scored 15 of his 21 points in the first half. Eugene Omoruyi led the way for the Ducks with 26 points and 6 rebounds.

RECAP: Cal MBB runs out of gas at #21 Oregon

On Oregon State: The Beavers are led by senior guard Ethan Thompson, who is averaging 17.3 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. Sophomore guard Jarod Lucas (11.1 points) and junior forward Warith Alatishe (10.4 points & 9.1 rebounds) are also scoring in double figures, giving Thompson solid support.

As a team, the Beavers average 77.0 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field, 36.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 72.9% shooting from the foul line. They also average 17.1 assists per game, a +4.3 rebound margin, 6.4 steals, 4.9 blocks, and 11.6 turnovers per game. Their opponents are averaging 64.3 points per game on 39.0% shooting from the field, 28.9% shooting from 3-point range, and 70.3% shooting from the foul line.

The Beavers come into this game with a little bit of momentum having won their last two games over UTSA and Portland State at home. This will also be the second time the Beavers see the Bears in Corvallis this season. Back on November 25th, Oregon State defeated Cal 71-63 in a rare non-conference game against a league opponent. It was the first game of the season for both teams.

Keys to the game: If Cal is to win this game, they’re going to have to do things differently than they did in Corvallis the first time. If they don’t make the necessary adjustments, we’re likely looking at another easy win for the Beavers.

First on the list for Cal has to be containing Warith Alatishe. In their first meeting, Alatishe had 16 points, which is nearly 6 points above his scoring average. Had Cal held him to 10 points, that would have made it a two point game. A game Cal might have won. If Alatishe gets held to his scoring average of 10-11 points or better yet, below that average, Cal will put themselves in a good position to win this game. If he has another 15+ point performance, Oregon State will likely win this game.

Secondly, Cal has to do much better on the glass. Oregon State outrebounded Cal 43-32 in their first meeting, really pounding the Bears inside. If Cal can close the rebounding gap in this game and do a better job of controlling the paint, this game will be much closer than it was back in November. If Oregon State once again controls the glass with ease, it’ll be smooth sailing for the Beavers.

Finally, Cal needs to hold their own in the 3-point battle. In their first meeting, Cal shot an abysmal 6-25 (24.0%) from 3-point range while Oregon State shot a much more efficient 5-11 (45.5%) from 3-point range. If Cal can shoot much more efficiently from deep and not allow Oregon State to shoot as well as they did in their first meeting, that could tip things in favor of the Bears. If it’s another long night of shooting for Cal and Oregon State is knocking down threes at a healthy little clip, the Beavers will be eying another victory.

Prediction: I’m expecting a closer contest than what we saw back in November. Cal played Oregon tough the other night in Eugene and will look to finish the job this time against a weaker opponent. That said, the road has been a tough place for Cal to pick up wins both this year and last. As such, I’m picking Oregon State to win by a very narrow margin of 70-68. This is certainly a game Cal can win if they play their cards right.