Well, it’s that time of year already.
The California Golden Bears will travel down to sunny Los Angeles to play the No. 9--ranked USC Trojans at 7:30 PM (PST) on Saturday.
Cal has won just four matchups against the Trojans since the year 2000, but Justin Wilcox is 2-2 against them in his tenure (2017-Present). A 15-14 victory in 2018 and a 24-14 win last year over a USC team that had a number of sit-outs mark the only wins for the program since 2003.
As has been the topic of much discussion, this will be the last Pac-12 matchup in the Coliseum between these two teams as USC will be headed to the Big Ten in 2024. While there may be a future where USC and Cal play non-conference games at some point, these next two matchups will be the last two guaranteed for a series that goes back over 100 years.
This will also be the Bears’ third straight game against teams averaging 40+ points per game.
USC (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12) is currently favored by 21.5 points and will look to ‘bounce back’ against a close 45-37 win over Arizona (3-5, 1-4), while Cal will look to kick a four-game losing streak.
Let's take a closer look at the matchup and what the Bears are up against ...
Coach: Lincoln Riley (1st season, 7-1 at USC; 62-11 overall)
Scoring Offense: 41.0 PPG (9th nationally)
Scoring Defense: 24.0 PPG (T51st)
Total Offense: 493.5 (12th)
Total Defense: 401.8 (88th)
What the Trojans do well:
For whatever else you may think or feel about USC, you absolutely have to respect its prowess as a football team in 2022. The difference made by adding Lincoln Riley and all of the players who followed suit shortly after cannot be overstated. The Trojans went from 4-8, not scoring 30 points per game and missing a bowl to a team with legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations in just one year.
So what are they good at?
The Trojans are lethal on offense and do an excellent job at getting their best playmakers in all sorts of space. Whether it is creative run fakes that turn into tunnel screens or long crossing routes helped by some ‘rub routes’ that pick off the nearest defender, Riley has a knack for creating favorable situations for his team.
Not only do the Trojans find themselves in good spots often, they also just do not turn the ball over -- almost literally. USC has one turnover on the season: an interception against Arizona State (of all teams). Combine that with 17 takeaways from their defense (13 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries) and it's easy to see part of the reason as to why they might be 7-1 so far. Excellent offense combined with an opportunistic defense.
Where the Trojans might be vulnerable:
For all of USC’s capability to create plus plays on defense, they still aren't very good as an entire unit. The Trojans are allowing 4.7 yards per carry (sort of being weighed down by Arizona State’s abysmal 3.0 YPC effort against them) and allow yardage at a rate that puts them squarely in the bottom half of college football. They also surrender conversions on 40.8% of third downs and a whopping 60% of fourth downs.
To be clear: Stanford ran 80 plays and put up 441 yards on USC early this year. Porous is the word for it. The Trojans also surrendered 804 passing yards over the last two games to Utah and Arizona. They've been missing one of their defensive lynchpins in middle linebacker Eric Gentry and it's had a pronounced impact, as the lanky 6-foot-6 sophomore is a factor against the pass as well as the run. As it is, USC's defense can most definitely be taken advantage of.
Five Players to Know:
1. QB Caleb Williams (No. 13): Sensational, incredible, next in line. All of these words have been used to describe USC’s sophomore quarterback who is by all accounts on track to be a top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams has thrown for 2,382 yards, 24 touchdowns and that lone interception at a 64.7-percent completion rate through eight games and has 249 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. When he’s on, he’s almost unstoppable. However, there has been a tendency to try some throws that are not there and force the ball to covered receivers while betting on him and his receiver’s superior talent to get the job done. That was almost his undoing at Oregon State, where he tried to play hero ball to keep them in the game at times.
2. DL Tuli Tuipulotu (No. 49): Tuipulotu has been a machine this year. The junior defensive lineman has 12.5 tackles for loss and 7 sacks through eight games and does not seem to be slowing down any time soon. At 6-foot-4 and 290 pounds, Tuipulotu is as big or bigger than some offensive linemen while also possessing a tremendous amount of explosiveness and pass rushing ability. They’ll certainly try to get him some one-on-one opportunities against the Bears this week, so he’s one to watch as this game unfolds.
A note - the two players listed next are all questionable for this week and did not play against Arizona. However, these are undoubtedly the difference makers for USC’s when they’re on the field.
3. WR Jordan Addison (No. 3): The 2021 Biletnikoff Award recipient during his time at Pittsburgh has been just as dominant with the Trojans even if the stats don’t quite back up the level of play. Addison has racked up 39 catches for 585 yards and 7 touchdowns this year while having to share some of the love with some elite receivers next to him. Addison is silky smooth in his route tree and knows how to get in and out of breaks quickly and create separation. The details speak the loudest on him -- he won’t ever be the biggest or the fastest but the results speak for themselves. Addison injured himself three weekends ago during USC's loss at Utah and Lincoln Riley said Thursday his status was still undecided for this game.
4. LB Eric Gentry (No. 18): Gentry might be football's most unique middle linebacker. At 6-foot-6 and listed at 200 pounds, Gentry seriously looks out of place in the middle of the field. However, he’s anything but. A freshman All-American last year for Arizona State, Gentry has totaled a team high 52 tackles with 37 of them being solo stops. With his length, he’s also snagged an interception and two passes broken up so far. He’s someone whose name may come up a lot more as the months go on and as he continues to make excellent plays. Gentry injured his ankle in that Utah game and is also questionable for this week.
5. RB Travis Dye (No. 26): Dye, of Oregon lore (and a former Norco running back, just like one Jaydn Ott) has been great for the Trojans this year. Dye has posted 720 yards on 121 attempts (6.1 average). He also has been a receiving threat when given the opportunity and looks every bit as good with the ball in his hands as he did for the Ducks. Dye is not a ‘gamebreaker’ the same way an Ott-type runner is, but he’ll get his chunk plays and make teams pay if they abandon defending the run.
Key Statistic:
Cal’s defense comes into this game with 21 straight weeks of forcing at least one turnover; USC has given the ball up once all year.
Immovable object, meet unstoppable force.
Something has got to give here, and my personal bet is that the Trojans will cough it up at least once or twice in this game (and interception and a fumble feels right). The Bears play the ball aggressively in the air and do try to strip the ball from ball carriers when they get the chance. It would not be shocking at all to see them come away with a turnover or two in this game -- USC is fantastic but its turnover luck (it is luck, to be clear) is not going to be there forever.
Key Matchup:
Let’s switch it up this week.
Obviously, Cal’s offensive line needs to get the job done against USC’s front seven, but the quarterbacks and receivers should be able to have success against the Trojans’ secondary. USC has held opponents under 60% completion just three times all year (Rice, Stanford and shockingly Washington State) while also not being tremendously sound on the back end. Cal has dipped under 60% completion just twice (Colorado and Notre Dame). However, there are concerns over Jack Plummer’s health and limited mobility and an apparent neck injury suffered against Oregon (per Bill Musgrave on Tuesday). The receivers are going to really have to work to get more open than normal to give Plummer a chance to play up to standard on Saturday. That should be a fun matchup to watch.