Five Things: Oregon
Welcome back to Five Things, which actually did not fail last week. This is somehow, weirdly comforting, because for a brief moment, I was convinced my comprehension of college football had completely splintered. Anyway, here's a quick review:
1) Play like it's the Big Game - check. No question that the Bears came out willing, especially when they needed a few plays to try to get one more chance at it.
2) Get anything less than absolutely disastrous special teams play - NOT check
3) Pressure Davis Mills - The Bears opted to play out of their base rush and drop in coverage, likely because there were so few bodies available. Their blitz count was something around 5 for the game, and the strategy was effective up until late; Stanford was forced to grind the ball down the field and once again the beneficiaries of Cal mistakes on their scoring drives. - draw
4) Run Pass Splits - Cal's refusal to throw the ball early in the second half caused them to fizzle out; they tried to ice the game down multiple linemen again, same as Oregon State. - Not check
5) The Middle of the Field - Despite some high profile conversions by Michael Wilson, I would say that Cal played largely better here from the safety and linebacker spots. Hard to say the game was lost on this, but if you want to be hard about it, I won't have any problems calling it a draw.
Anyway, they lost five things. They lost the game. By a blocked point after. That happened.
Let's just move on.
1) Throwing the Ball.
Here are some Oregon defensive numbers for you:
6.37 YPP (10th in the conference; 103rd of 127 FBS)
20 20+ yard plays allowed (11th in the conference; useless to compare to FBS due to difference in number of games played)
5.44 YPC (10th in the conference; 112th of 127 FBS)
7.4 YPA (8th in the conference; 56th of 127 FBS)
So, the losses of Thomas Graham, Jevon Holland, and Brady Breeze have hurt them overall, and Cal will undoubtedly try to run the ball against them as a result. More on that in a second, though.
What I'm specifically concerned with here is the aversion to passing the ball down the field whatsoever, which is hampering. Perhaps the coaches don't feel comfortable asking Chase to stand back there with multiple linemen down, waiting for longer developing pass patterns.
But, it's appalling right now the way they've not been able to put him in better positions to succeed - his 5.7 YPA this season is even worse than the first Baldwin year. All numbers from PFF:
2020 15+ yard attempts: 29 of 105 (27.6%)
2019 15+ yard attempts: 98 of 217 (45.1%)
2018 15+ yard attempts: 76 of 260 (29.2%)
This kind of conservatism was a lot more understandable when Cal could lug their way to any and every win possible on the back of the defense; and now that that defense has taken a step back, it has to fall on him to carry.
He has the talent. That much, we've become convinced of. His weapons are better too; every single player in the skill rotation is at least as good as Vic Wharton, who led the Bears with 502 receiving yards that year. (Moe Ways was second, and Noa third in a largely injury-hampered season).
Let him throw. And if it's not that, then find a way to get him better throws.
2) Special Teams (Again)
Last week, this item was literally begging for anything less than absolutely catastrophic special teams play, and that still wasn't possible. That means this season has largely been decided by the third of the game everyone expects nothing out of.
I have already posted the contextual numbers last week. They're still bad.
No more special teams talk. Please. I can't take it anymore.
3) Create A Spark
Needless to say, Cal has played it close to the vest these first three weeks - their most "exotic" offensive look has been to shuffle some guys late, spread to empty, speed option, or a quick handoff to Nikko. This is not to say that the team needs fumblerooskis from the first drive, but it would be nice to see something resembling aggression from a team lacking that this year. It would be indicative of the team's mindset at this crucial juncture, with a 2-4 season (or worse) staring them in the face.
Yes, risk isn't naturally a part of the Wilcox ethos, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. But when the team is struggling for any sort of momentum, the offense has been sporadic, the defense just passable, this is the kind of game that demands it.
Under Joe Moorhead, the Ducks have been tremendously explosive, leading the conference in 10+ yard plays, 20+ yard plays, and so on, and so forth. But they're also gettable here -- Shough has thrown 4 interceptions, to go with five total fumbles by the Duck offense. It could come from the defense too.
4) A Hopefully Healthy OL (Because They'll Need It)
This week, both Jake Curhan and Will Craig were cleared (along with Collin Moore), meaning that the Bears might actually be able to run Damien more (heh), as well as mix in Chris Brown the way they hoped for at the beginning of the season. The problem: Kayvon Thibodeaux and true freshman Noah Sewell, the conferences' numbers 4 and 8 in tackles for loss this year. Despite Oregon's relative softness against the run (and on both sides of the ball really), Cal has struggled to contain disruptive defensive players this year:
Week 1 Osa Odighiziuwa, Caleb Johnson, Qwuantrezz Knight, 6 TFL (4 sacks; 5 on the day)
Week 2: Avery Roberts and Omar Speights, 4 TFL (1.5 sacks; 2 by Oregon State on the day)
Week 3: Curtis Robinson and Thomas Shaffer 4 TFL (2 sacks; 4 by Stanford on the day)
Of course, the last two weeks were impacted by the missing linemen in the first place, but the point is the same -- no matter how weak and inexperienced the Duck lineman are, they have enough pieces to continue the Havoc trend started by others before them.
5) Salvage
I admit, there were a few other things I thought about putting here, such as a focus on the Oregon skill position players (they're splitting carries with CJ Verdell and Travis Dye), or maybe a little thing about Tyler "I don't know how his last name is pronounced Shuck" Shough, who is pushing the ball down field at 9.8 YPA, good for 10th in the country. But, those are knowns, and Shough will be playing against the strength of the Bears (arguably the best performing unit of the Bears, alongside the defensive line) as it is. Chigozie Anusiem and Cam Bynum have still been lights out this year.
So, I'm going to talk, like last week, about salvage - because this is a big moment, in a relatively viewable timeslot, with two weeks to go before national signing day, to help keep kids in the boat, but to also restore momentum going forward. You can brush off 3-3 in recruiting and optics. It's harder to do at 0-6, if you're being blown out by the team you hoped to challenge for Pac-12 supremacy; then you start getting into who might graduate transfer, and it's a mess to project.
Cal does have to win the game, but just as big is how they appear in a loss.