Analyzing Matt Bradley’s NBA potential
After having a successful sophomore campaign, Cal guard Matt Bradley looks to have an even more successful junior season and hopefully boost his NBA draft stock even further. Cal hasn't had a player drafted since Ivan Rabb in the second round of the 2017 NBA draft, and Bradley could be the next Bear to go to the league.
Strengths: Right off the bat, one strength of Bradley is his 6’4”, 220 pound frame. He’s built like former NBA All-Star Deron Williams, a little bigger than Williams, who was listed at 6’3”, 210 pounds at Illinois. Like Williams, Bradley has a quick first step and plays with physicality. He can beat guys off the dribble, finishes through contact, and all in all isn’t afraid to put his body on the line. He has a great combination of size and quickness for the NBA level. He also has a great vertical jump, capable of throwing it down on opponents.
In addition to having the physical tools, Bradley has developed a polished game and kept up his scoring production from his high school days. As a freshman, Bradley averaged 10.8 points per game on 41.1% shooting from the field, 47.2% shooting from 3-point range, and 79.1% shooting from the foul line in 28.4 minutes of action per game. As a sophomore, Bradley took a significant leap, averaging 17.5 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field, 38.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 86.8% shooting from the foul line in 33.2 minutes of action per game.
What allowed Bradley to take a step up was a combination of having more on his shoulders to begin with and also his willingness to improve his game and take on the scoring burden. He became more crafty in terms of diversifying his game. He does a great job of isolating and scoring off the dribble, creating space with his crossover or jab step and taking the ball to the rim. He is effective both in transition and in half-court sets. He can catch and shoot from 3 or create his own space from deep as well.
One consistent thing we’ve seen from Bradley during his entire Cal career is his clutch play. He hit a huge game winner to beat Washington last season and has never shied away from taking big shots, something that has been his MO since his AAU days. He thrives under pressure and has shown he has what it takes to step up in crunch time.
On defense, Bradley has the physical tools to guard both point guards and shooting guards and has shown a willingness to put his body on the line, drawing charges at a solid rate. While he’s known more for his offensive abilities, Bradley can hold his own on defense. He also averaged a pretty solid 4.3 defensive rebounds per game last season, so he isn’t afraid to go in the paint and crash the boards.
Weaknesses: When assessing his NBA outlook, the biggest question mark for Bradley is what position does he project to be? Most NBA shooting guards are at least 6’5” and are typically longer than Bradley is. So, while he does have a great physical profile, his physical profile is better suited for a point guard than a shooting guard.
If you look at Bradley’s playing style, it’s clear that is a scoring oriented shooting guard. He averaged just 1.5 assists per game last season and didn’t do much in terms of facilitating. Part of that was by design as he was asked to be the top scorer for Cal, but if he is to boost his NBA draft stock, he’ll want to be able to convince NBA teams that he can some play point guard and become a better facilitator. He's capable of being a facilitator in transition, he'll have to show more of it.
Another area that Bradley needs to work on is shot selection. He was given the green light as a sophomore, and this allowed Bradley to get a real feel for the game. There were times when Bradley’s aggressive shot selection paid off and there were other times when it did not. Bradley improved in this area from his freshman year to his sophomore year, so I have full confidence that he’ll make even more strides in his junior year.
While he made his presence felt on defense by drawing charges, Bradley hasn’t been much of a disruptor on defense, averaging 0.5 steals and 0.2 blocks per game last season. Bradley does have active hands under the basket on defense, but it hasn't turned into production.
Bradley needs to get better at picking his spots in terms of committing offensive fouls and failing to draw charges. While drawing charges is a strength of his, Bradley does need to continue to improve reading the offense and not picking up unnecessary fouls. As for the offensive fouls, Bradley sometimes has the tendency to get out of control in attempting to get to the rim, which leads to offensive foul calls or a turnover.
Bradley averaged 2.8 fouls per game his sophomore year after averaging 2.7 fouls per game his freshman year, so his foul numbers have remained pretty consistent (3.4 per 40 minutes as a sophomore vs. 3.8 per 40 minutes as a junior). If he could get those foul numbers down a bit and do a better job of knowing when to put his body on the line and when to pull back, that would help stay on the floor longer and showcase more of what he can do.
Overall outlook: When it comes to his NBA potential, there’s a lot to like about Matt Bradley in terms of his physical profile, his aggression, his ability to score in a variety of ways, and his winning mentality. Putting up 17.5 points per game as a sophomore in a power conference and doing so efficiently speaks for itself. If he can improve his point guard skills a bit and improve his overall feel for the game, he could find a home in the league.
In terms of his current draft projection, I think there is a possibility that he could leave for the NBA after his junior year. If he puts up 20+ points per game and puts himself in the mix for Pac-12 Player of the Year, it might be good for him to make the jump a year early. If that happens, then we could be looking at a situation in which he gets drafted in the late 1st round/early-mid 2nd round of the 2021 NBA Draft. That’s a best case scenario for him.
Being more realistic, I think Bradley will likely stay for all four years at Cal and put himself in the mix to be a late 1st round/early-mid 2nd round pick of the 2022 NBA Draft. He likes Cal a lot and also has the goal of getting Cal to the NCAA Tournament, which I don’t think will happen unless he comes back for his senior year.